讲座主题

Financial Intermediary   Leverage and Unemployment

现场负责人

邓建鹏

联系电话

65907206

举办时间

1月16日14：00-15：30

举办地点

中欧平台武东路校区526

活动参与人数规模

15

联络人及联系电话

刘益如

65907868

主讲人姓名、单位、职称/职务及简历

Zehao Li,   University  of Wisconsin-Madison, Ph.D.   candidate

讲座内容摘要（会议议程）

I establish that financial   intermediary leverage and unemployment are closely related and build a model   that combines frictions on financial intermediaries with labor search and   matching to explain the relationship. Empirically, in response to a negative   productivity shock, unemployment increases substantially when financial   intermediary leverage is high, but not in other episodes. The model relies   primarily on the stochastic discount factor (SDF) channel. Negative   productivity shocks increase the financial intermediary leverage. Because the   financial intermediary sector can’t raise enough funds in high leverage   states, the SDF increases sharply. Meanwhile, the matching surplus is low.   The negative relationship between the SDF and the matching surplus decreases   the present value of future matching surpluses. Consequently, vacancy posting   and employment plummet in a high leverage state. The model implies that the   unemployment rate would have been 2 percentage points lower if the 2008   recession had started with the early 2001 financial intermediary leverage.

    学院审批意见

负责人签（章）                 年    月   日