题目：The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in a Dual Economy: RMB Real Exchange Rate Revisited

时间：12月25日（周二） 15:00-16:30

地点：中欧平台武东路校区114

演讲者：Yi Chen， Professor， Peking University

摘要：This paper develops a two-sector small open economy general equilibrium model. By assuming that rural labors need to pay idiosyncratic costs to get employed in the industrial sector, the paper articulates how technological advancement affects real exchange rate, sectoral wage gap and other endogenous variables in a dual economy, hereby providing a theoretical framework to understand related issues in dual economies such as China. We not only test certain testable predictions of the model using multi-country panel data, but simulate the model to assess its ability to fit Chinese data. It is shown that the model can account for the dynamics of all endogenous variables in the sample period strikingly well, particularly the seemingly weak but fast appreciating RMB-USD real exchange rate, as well as China’s ever expanding industry-agriculture wage gap. In every aspect, the model significantly outperforms the classic frictionless Balassa-Samuelson model.

Key words: intersectoral migration cost, Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, RMB real exchange rate, sectoral wage gap

摘要：本文构建了一个两部门开放小国一般均衡模型，在农村劳动力跨部门就业需要付出异质性成本的假设下，揭示了二元经济环境下部门偏向型技术进步影响实际汇率及部门工资差距等内生变量的作用机制，为研究以中国为代表的二元经济体的相关问题提供了一个具有启发性的理论框架。我们不仅使用跨国面板数据对模型的部分可检验假说进行了检验，还通过数值模拟法对模型拟合中国现象的能力进行了考察。数值模拟的结果表明，本文模型出色地拟合了样本期内各内生变量的变化轨迹，尤其是看似偏低且以较快速度升值的人民币对美元实际汇率，以及持续扩大的工农业部门工资差距。无论从哪个维度看，本文模型解释中国现象的能力都远胜于假设劳动力市场不存在摩擦的经典巴拉萨-萨缪尔森模型。

关键词：劳动力转移成本 巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说 人民币实际汇率 部门工资差距