题目：The GATT/WTO Welfare Effects: 1950-2015

演讲者：金威博士，新加坡管理大学

时间：2018年1月19日（星期五）上午10.30-12.00

地点：国际工商管理学院221

摘要：This paper uses nonparametric matching estimators to estimate the partial effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade, and evaluates the welfare effects of GATT/WTO in its entire history of 1950-2015 for as many as 180 countries. The estimation methodology takes into account trade liberalization induced by GATT/WTO in tariffs or non-tariff barriers, in variable or fixed trade cost, and in border or domestic policies. With nonparametric matching, the framework is also able to accommodate heterogeneous treatment effects and potential selection into treatment based on observables. The matching results indicate significant but heterogeneous trade effects of membership on imports from fellow members and from nonmembers across eight GATT/WTO trade negotiation rounds and development stages. Given the partial trade effect estimates, we quantify the general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, trade flows, firm entry, and multilateral resistance to trade, for each country in each year during 1950-2015. In particular, we reformulate three representative quantitative trade models of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003), Krugman (1980), and Melitz (2003) within a unified framework connected by structural gravity equations, and allow for the use of intermediates in production and the presence of trade imbalance. The results overall indicate substantial welfare gains created by the GATT/WTO system at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. Extensive set of robustness checks with respect to model specifications, trade elasticities, and matching estimations are provided. We also characterize the effects of GATT/WTO on global income inequality, its interactions with preferential trade agreements, and the effects of China’s WTO entry on the world.